So…about that Sunday departure…
We’re still in Sydney. We’re likely to BE in Sydney for several more days.
Last Friday we headed of to Costco to do a provisioning run for the passage. First, we got up early and dropped both sails. We replaced the jib halyard, and inspected the main halyard but decided we didn’t need the new one yet after all. The jib went smoothly, but the early morning calm may have been shattered by a constant stream of profanity muttered at the main sail as we tried to get it off. But it worked…
Given the early start to the day and the busy plan, I didn’t check the weather until we got back from Costco and got everything loaded up on the boat. Our last GRIB download showed a fairly easy passage, with winds perhaps a little soft and requiring some motoring, and picking up towards the end.
Friday afternoon, I downloaded this:
Yes, that’s us next Friday getting PASTED by a 960 mb low pressure system.
Friends don’t let friends sail off into cyclones. Tropical Cyclone OMA, to be precise.
There are two main weather models we look at for weather routing – the GFS model, produced by NOAA, and the ECMWF or “Euro” model produced from a weather center in Europe. They both have their strengths and weaknesses, but they do often diverge the further in the future you go.
In this case, the GFS model wasn’t showing us getting the low pressure system at all…until it was. The Euro model had been showing lows coming down south to New Zealand, but was far from the GFS a that point. Last Friday they switched, and the Euro started showing TC Oma bumping into the Queensland, Australia area and the GFS showed it hanging around New Caledonia, then sprinting down south to land practically on top of our heads.
Now the models still differ, but they are in agreement on one thing: If we leave Sydney in the next few days, we will get pasted with horrible weather. Where they differ is whether we get clobbered by TC Oma, or by some other fresh hell of a low pressure system that pops up around New Zealand as we approach it.
So we’re laying low and waiting for the models and the weather to settle. As it stands new, leaving next weekend could net us a nice trip over, though with some motoring. But the models are still showing INSANE wave patterns, and we think those won’t settle until the models have had a chance to make more realistic near term predictions on the wind.
We’ll keep you posted…
